Analysis: Kurds agree on independence and disagree about its timing12/05/2012 15:32
ERBIL, May 12 (AKnews) - Many active writers and intellectuals in media and cultural arenas analyzed in the impact of the Arab spring revolutions on political events. They also analyzed the consequences that resulted amid the tendency of people towards freedom and their desire to achieve self-determination whether through federalism, as in the case of the Kurdistan Region in Iraq, that may probably lead to the establishment of an independent state according the international or regional circumstances, or through separation as happened in Sudan where the south separated and formed an independent state recognized by all countries of the world.
Most of the writers agree that the region is passing through a tense period in the presence of local and regional factors that will definitely lead to geopolitical changes that will in turn create a new political map which produces historical and geographic consequences.
Lebanese writer Khairallah Khairallah said: "Iraq will not regain its unity soon for many reasons, including foreign intervention and the control of Iran on the political decisions in Baghdad." Khairallah ruled out any dramatic development about the independence of Kurdistan.
"The Kurds prefer to wait because they know that time is working for their advantage on the one hand, and that they must take into account the regional situation on the other. The most important thing is that the entire Middle East is witnessing a transitional phase that is similar to the period the followed the fall of the Ottoman Empire."
Kuwaiti writer Ahmad Ghuloom Ben Ali said: "The phase the Arab region is currently witnessing is transitional, that's why it can't be interpreted clearly. But what can be said here is that there are a number of internal and external factors that could lead towards more setbacks for the national merger in the Arab countries and this tendency could lead towards separation and independence.
"There's a failure in the national and patriotic state and the situation of integration is temporary and at this stage in which all the barriers of fear of domination and oppression are broken. Thus the desire to return to the pre-state affiliations become stronger."
Salam Abdul-Muhsin al-Maliki, director of Amal (Hope) radio station in Basra said: "Among the participants in the recent political history we may find South Sudan, the Arabistan Region [Khuzestan currently] and the Kurdistan Region in Iraq.
"Britain contributed to "rooting" the religious and ethnic sense in South Sudan, and also worked to consolidate the Arab and Persian affiliation in the Arabistan.
"The common thing with Iraq's Kurdistan is the autonomy of the Kurds since 1970 that the former regime ignored and South Sudan since 1972, but the absence of the regional aspect from South Sudan helped it to separate."
With regard to the Kurdistan Region, PM Maliki said: "Resolving the Kurdish issues needs Kurdish unity in completing the borders of the Kurdish map of Kirkuk. All this perhaps need fewer than two decades if the time reading for Kurdish political planning was correct."
The Lebanese writer Hazem Saghiyya said that the Kurdistan Region is now semi-autonomous. In addition to that the Iraqi constitution states on the adoption of federalism. However, the relationship between the region and federal authority in Baghdad, especially after the issue of Tareq al-Hashemi is concerning.
"Baghdad's policies agree with the policies of Tehran while Erbil is getting close to Istanbul, and it's clear how getting away and spacing does not necessarily mean the end of confusion.
"The Sudanese and Iraqi scenes show that the central power had disastrous results on the two countries, and other Arab countries are still dominated by that authority."
Writer Awwad Nasser meanwhile said: "Any sect or religious group must enjoy their full rights within a democratic state, governed by federal law according to the constitution, considering that its citizens have rights, duties and aspirations."
Writer and academic Osama Othman said the option of separation is determined by the ability of the state to represent all its citizens and distribute wealth fairly.
"We don't know exactly the orientations of the people. In Libya, for example some areas tried to separate on a tribal basis but the public reaction showed a rejection and this indicated the presence of disagreement."
In Iraq, there is a stronger trend to show the Kurdish privacy and the calls for separation increase when there is weakness in the adoption of unified Iraqi speech.
"The announcement about the establishment of a Kurdish state requires conditions that take into account its impact on Iraq and the fear of unknown results. At the present time there is a balance from Iraq's neighbors Iran and Turkey."
Qatar-based Iraqi writer and journalist Ayad al-Dulaimi said: "There is a possibility to repeat the experience of the secession of southern Sudan in other parts of the Arab world, first because the issue of Sudan and its south is almost different from some other areas, believed to be eligible to repeat the experiment. And what happened in Sudan was a natural result for years of conflicts that don't have a similar in the Arab world.
"I think that if it really happened it will not be now where the Iraqi Kurds are well aware that time is not right now, while in Syria I don't think that there's any sectarian or ethnic group able to experience a separatist experience for many reasons.
"One of the most prominent [things] is that there's no tempting wealth, to repeat the experience of separation, not to mention the lack of a historical conflict between the Syrian people."
Syrian writer and activist Tarif al-Khayyat said: "The growing sectarian and ethnic identities in the region, and semi-cold war between the Gulf states and Iran - between Sunni and Shia - may contribute to changing the geopolitical map of the region and make it something possible.
"It's too early to talk about the state of Greater Kurdistan, or Kurdistan Iraq or Alawite state in Syria or the independence of Arabistan Region in Iran.
"We must distinguish between two types of divisions. The division of a single state within its administrative borders, and redrawing the border between the countries of the region with the birth of new states and the extinction of others.
"In both cases, any division requires a war or long-term civil conflict in the first case and a regional one in the second, to weaken the authority of the central state, with the availability of external support for the parties of the conflict, and the approval of the internal and external parties to the project of partition at the end of the way.
"The region in general could witness regional wars caused by Israeli-Iranian war or a war related to the Syrian file or a civil war in Syria that extends to Iraq Lebanon and inflame the region and each case has its own justification and constraints, and consequences.
"In conclusion, the issue remains purely speculative and as usual the Middle East, which is full of conflicts, may witness a major war or wars of limited influence among countries of the region or may calm down waiting for another crisis."
Lebanese journalist Mustafa Zain stated that the two leaders - Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani - do not differ about the goal of secession from Iraq and declaring the Kurdish state, but they differ about the timing.
"There are two opinions in the political center in relation to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. The first considers that Baghdad will do a bold step by giving the Kurds their full independence, yet retain Kirkuk, to get rid of this heavy historical burden.
"The second is adhered to the federal formula because the regional conditions do not allow it now. This means that the timing, again, is the important factor. In other words, the Arabs and Kurds, don't see a possibility to continue in the form of a single state, and they're awaiting the right conditions for the separation.
"But Leader Barzani believes that the situation is appropriate now, where Syria is mired in its political and security crisis. The Arabs won't support it if tried to respond to its move and its Kurd are ready to hold arms and they carried it actually like the rest of the Syrians.
"Iran is regionally and internationally seized and any military action inside Iraq could spark a regional war. While the Justice and Development Party in Turkey announced about giving up the Kurdistan Workers' Party and its assistance in putting down the rebellion in Anatolia, and giving the Turkmen of Kirkuk 'their right to reach power and oil'."
By Adnan abu Zaid